Abacus Says: Raleigh Housing Market Weakening?

AbacusWeakening perhaps but still healthy.
Periodically we should study statistics.  I’ll try to visit statistics on at least a monthly basis. More often takes the fun out of it.

Right or wrong, much of yesterday’s stock market sell-off was attributed to bad economic reports on the nation’s housing market.  Interestingly, stock market analysts can always find a reason for what the market just did.  They are less proficient at telling us what the market is going to do.

So, it seems a good time to take another look at Raleigh stats.

Here are updated graphs for 4 central Raleigh areas.
In the local real estate world, these are known as Area 1 – Inside the Beltline, Area 2 – North Raleigh, Area 3 – SE Raleigh, and Area 4 – NC State or SW Raleigh.  Effective next month these 4 areas have been renamed by TMLS.  They will all be referred to as simply “Raleigh”.

I’ve added a new graph this month – Number of Showings.

Raleigh Number of Homes Sold Jan - Sept 2007Number of Homes Sold:
A downward trend since mid year in all 4 Raleigh real estate areas.

Raleigh Average Home Prices January - September 2007Average Home Price:
Less of a downward trend than seen in the graph above.  SE and SW Raleigh seem to be holding their own.  Inside the Beltline and North Raleigh indicate a fall in average price.  It should be noted that there were a couple of abnormally expensive homes sold Inside the Beltline during May and July which skewed the stats a bit.

Raleigh Days on Market for Januany - September 2007Average Days on Market:
Mixed results, but overall it seems to be taking a little longer to sell a home.

Raleigh Number of Home Showings for Jan - Sept 2007Number of Showings:
This new graph is a good indicator of overall buyer activity.  A decrease in number of showings indicates less buyer activity.  As you can see, showing numbers are dropping.

Though these statistics may indicate a chink in the Raleigh armor, it’s important to remember that these are short term stats.  I still see plenty of activity.  Raleigh remains one of the healthiest markets in the country.